Tough road ahead for Surin

Asean Charter must be ratified by a quorum before the new secretary-general can carry on with his work

Surin Pitsuwan has taken up his post as Asean secretary-general. He expressed the hope that the Asean Charter would be ratified within one year after Singapore became the first member of the grouping to ratify this historic document earlier this week. The island nation has set a good example by providing this calculated measure of support. As it turns out, there is a  chance that the ratification process might take more than one year. At the Asean Summit in November, no leaders were able to commit to ratifying the charter within a specific time frame. As a result of this lack of an agreed-upon timetable, the charter, which is supposed to streamline red tape and make the organisation more effective and responsive to civil society organisations in the region, may be stalled. Furthermore, the expectations that the charter would also enhance the role of the secretary-general to speak and act on behalf of Asean remains a pipe dream. At the moment, there is nothing to indicate that other countries might follow in Singapore's footsteps.

Filipino President Gloria Arroyo warned in November that her country's parliament might not ratify the charter because of the ongoing political suppression in Burma. Malaysia showed enthusiasm at first, but the issue has been put on the back burner due to scandals at home. Other countries have not yet said anything. In Thailand's case, the new government has not yet been set up, so it will take a while. As host of the upcoming summit later this year, Thailand wants to make sure that all members ratify the charter so that it can be implemented right away.If all members of Asean do not ratify the charter by the end of this year, then there must be an alternative plan, which would enable existing signatories to give the green light to take any significant stand and perhaps even to ratify the charter. It is possible that six or seven signatories would be sufficient for a quorum. Already, it has been announced that there will not be a mid-year summit because the charter has not yet been ratified.

The charter stipulates that there should be two summit meetings annually. Other recommendations will need the charter's ratification to move ahead. In fact, the delay of the ratification of the charter could also push back the establishment of an Asean human-rights body. Without the ratification, members could say that there is nothing to do for the time being. Asean leaders agree that the terms of reference should be first drawn up as guidelines for the human-rights body in Asean. Surin will be in Naypyidaw this week for a ministerial meeting on arts and culture. It will be his first foreign trip since he took over the secretary-general position. His trip will be revealing, both about Burma's attitude towards his leadership and to the Asean Charter. After all, Burma has remained defiant in the face of all international pressure following the violent crackdown on demonstrators there in September of last year.

The leaders of the Burmese junta said that they would follow their political development plan, which includes the democratisation process set forth three years ago. If that is the case, they would certainly like to resume their rotation into the Asean chairmanship, which they abandoned after heavy criticism from Asean and the international community in 2004. This would allow Burma to proceed with its business-as- usual political attitude. Surin will have difficult tasks ahead of him. If he has the proper support of Asean leaders, Surin can be effective and make use of the connections he has established around the world. If not, he will follow the same path as his three predecessors and be held captive to bureaucracy and leadership idiosyncrasies. Surin's dreams to carry on with the aspirations of Asean's founding fathers still remain on muddy ground, and will remain so unless there is a fundamental change in the Asean mindset.